China Q2 GDP Up 5.2% – Export Power & Consumer Catch‐Up

Hello, Market Reader’s

Nvidia just unveiled a major shift: the U.S. government has agreed to approve export licenses for its H20 AI chip to China flipping the script on the April ban. CEO Jensen Huang, fresh from high-stakes meetings with Trump and China’s leaders, says deliveries will restart soon a sign the AI arms race just got hotter. This move boosted Nvidia shares ~3%, and reverberated across the tech sector from AMD to TSMC fueling optimism around global chip supply chains.

Today’s Global Menu

• Focal Point

• World Markets

• Frontier News

• Crypto World

Focal Point

📊 China’s Q2 GDP Beats Expectations: Signal or Mirage for Global Recovery?

China’s economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025 slightly ahead of market forecasts offering a rare glimmer of optimism amid global macro uncertainty. But dig deeper, and the picture is more complex.

🔍 Why the Headline Number Matters:
Beating expectations may calm nerves about a China slowdown, especially as global trade faces headwinds. With manufacturing ticking up and policy support rolling in, China is trying to stabilize the world’s second-largest economy.

⚠️ But Challenges Persist:

• Youth unemployment remains high a red flag for long-term consumer demand.

• The property sector is still fragile despite government efforts to reduce developer risk.

• Consumer confidence hasn’t fully recovered retail sales and private investment lag behind industrial growth.

🛠️ Beijing’s Approach:
Targeted stimulus, infrastructure investment, and easing of some monetary policies have helped keep growth on track. But questions remain: Is this sustainable, or a short-term sugar high?

🌐 What It Means for India & Global Markets:
China’s health affects supply chains, commodities, and emerging market flows. A stronger-than-expected GDP may calm fears but if deeper reforms don’t follow, volatility could return.

Growth headlines are good. Structural fixes? Even better.

World Markets

I. Turbulence: Asian markets hit choppy waters on July 15 as Trump’s looming tariffs cast a shadow over sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX posted modest gains, but South Korea’s Kospi edged lower, while Hong Kong and Shanghai markets slumped Shanghai under the weight of slower economic growth and tariff fears.

Meanwhile in India, the Sensex surged ~150 points and Nifty broke past 25,100, fueled by a welcome dip in retail inflation to a six‑year low offering a bright spot amid the regional volatility.

FRONTIER NEWS

1. Electrify: Tesla has unveiled its much-anticipated Model Y in India, starting at ₹59.9 lakh (~ $70K) significantly pricier than U.S. rates (~$45K) due to steep import duties. The rollout in Mumbai (with Delhi to follow) marks a high-voltage moment for India’s EV landscape, signaling Tesla's ambition to electrify a market still warming up to clean mobility.

2. Surge: U.S. June inflation jumped 0.3% the sharpest monthly climb since January as tariff-driven costs for gasoline, furniture, and recreation goods started trickling through to consumers. Annual CPI now stands at ~2.7%, with core inflation at 3.0%, putting pressure on the Fed to hold rates steady despite the heat.

3. Crossfire: A potential 30% U.S. tariff on EU exports, slamming into effect August 1, would disrupt the $1.7 trillion transatlantic trade, costing Germany over €200 billion by 2028 and eroding eurozone growth. EU leaders are racing to avert the cliff employing countermeasures worth €72 billion and scrambling for diplomatic solutions.

Crypto World

I. Skyrocket: Bitcoin surged to fresh record highs briefly topping $123K driven by surging institutional money (over $15B in ETF inflows) and the heightened optimism of “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill. With key legislation like the Genius Act and CLARITY Act on the docket, regulators are casting Bitcoin as a mainstream asset rather than a fringe gamble.

II. Pioneer: Kazakhstan’s central bank is charting new territory, planning to allocate part of its gold, FX reserves and even crypto recovered via law enforcement into a bold national crypto reserve. Drawing inspiration from Norway, the U.S., and Middle Eastern sovereign funds, this strategic pivot balances high-return ambition with caution amid crypto’s notorious volatility.

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Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan Global Markets team

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