India’s $87B Trade on the Brink: How Trump’s 50% Tariff Shake-Up Raises the Stakes

India’s $87 B Exports Under Fire

August 07, 2025

Read time: Under 4 minutes

Hello, Market Reader’s

China just unveiled a July trade performance that’s nothing short of groundbreaking: exports surged an impressive 7.2% year‑on‑year, far above expectations, while imports rebounded 4.1%, signaling signs that domestic demand might be stirring. That foreign‑demand revival came even as shipments to the U.S. tumbled ~22%, with Southeast Asia stepping into the spotlight. With the temporary U.S. tariff truce expiring in August, China’s export engine is running hot but for how long?

Today’s Global Menu

  • Focal Point

  • World Markets

  • Frontier News

  • Crypto World

FOCAL POINT

🇮🇳 India's $87B Export Risk - Tariff Trouble Brewing

Donald Trump's tariff threats are back and this time, India’s massive export pipeline to the U.S. could be in the crosshairs.

📉 What’s at stake?

  • India exported nearly $87 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year.

  • Key sectors like pharma, textiles, electronics, and automotive may face the heat.

  • Trump's warning ties directly to India’s ongoing Russian oil purchases hinting at broader geopolitical friction.

📊 Why it matters:

  • The U.S. remains India’s top export destination.

  • Tariffs could erode profit margins, increase uncertainty, and delay investment cycles.

Analysts warn this could shave off 30–40 bps from India’s GDP growth if escalated.

🌐 What to watch:

Will India pivot policy? Or diversify exports more aggressively toward Europe, Middle East, and Asia?

Could global investors reprice India’s long-term manufacturing and export story?

🧭 India’s resilience will be tested - not just by economics, but diplomacy.

👉 The question is no longer if trade is politicized - it’s how fast we adapt to its realities.

WORLD MARKETS

🌏 Asia Stocks Climb Calm Before the Data Storm?

Asian equities opened the week on a positive note as Nikkei and Kospi climbed, tracking Wall Street gains.

But beneath the surface, investor eyes are locked onto two key data points:

  • 🇨🇳 China's Trade Data

  • 🇦🇺 Australia’s Trade Performance

Why it matters:

  • China’s export-import balance will offer a clue on global demand health especially after recent weak factory data.

  • Australia, a major commodity exporter, serves as a bellwether for resource-driven economies and Asia-Pacific consumption trends.

📊 Global sentiment is also being lifted by:

  • US Fed rate expectations stabilizing

  • Rebound in tech and chip stocks

  • Hope of policy easing in China

💡 Investor Insight:
While the rally feels good, real momentum hinges on macro validation. Weak numbers from China or Australia could quickly sour sentiment.

📉 The short-term play is optimism.
📈 The long-term play is resilience amid data volatility.

🧭 Stay nimble. What looks like a rally could turn into a rangebound trap.

FRONTIER NEWS

 

🧠 Silicon Standoff: Trump just dropped a bombshell: semiconductors not made in the U.S. could face a 100% tariff. The message? Build stateside or pay the price. As tensions rise, chipmakers eye domestic expansion fast.

🛢️ Crude Shock: Oil prices just snapped back after Trump hiked tariffs on India over its Russian crude imports. The new 50% duty sent a ripple through energy markets, fanning fears of an oil-price flare-up.

🍏 Apple's Ace: In a bold move, Trump announced Apple’s $100 billion U.S. investment pledge, shielding the tech giant from looming semiconductor tariffs. The twist? Failure to deliver triggers clawbacks.

🃏 Trade Poker: Trump isn't done dealing he’s floating even more tariffs, citing unfair practices and national security. As companies scramble for clarity, startups and supply chains alike are bracing for what could be a bruising sequel to past trade wars.

CRYPTO WORLD

🚨 XRP: A Strategic Bet by Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital, led by crypto billionaire Mike Novogratz, has made a bold move placing XRP among its top crypto holdings, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Why does it matter?

  • XRP’s legal clarity post-Ripple's partial SEC win has re-energized institutional confidence.

  • Galaxy’s stake in Ripple now serves as a strategic anchor in its broader crypto portfolio.

🔍 Context:

  • XRP was previously avoided by many U.S. funds due to regulatory uncertainty.

  • Now, as Ripple expands into cross-border settlements, CBDC partnerships, and tokenization infrastructure XRP is regaining its shine.

💰 What this signals:

  • Institutional crypto portfolios are evolving it’s no longer just BTC and ETH.

  • Legal clarity is becoming a key factor in asset allocation decisions.

  • Galaxy’s move could signal broader Wall Street warming up to XRP again.

🤔 Should retail investors follow suit? Maybe. But smart capital always plays the long game with regulation, not hype, as the compass.

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Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan Global Markets team

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