Tariff Tensions Escalate: Trump & Treasury Face Off with China - Truce Hangs in the Balance

Hello, Market Reader’s

Headline GDP likely bounced back in Q2, thanks mainly to a sharp drop in imports - but beneath the surface, growth looks fragile. Consumer spending rose modestly and business investment in equipment stayed stalled, raising doubts about a real economic turnaround. Economists caution that volatile trade and inventory shifts may be painting a flattering picture - suggesting the recovery is driven more by arithmetic than actual momentum. With estimates ranging between ~2.4% to perhaps 3.3%, full-year growth is still expected to hover under 1.5% - and uncertainty around tariffs, debt-fueled fiscal measures, and immigration policy could weigh on the second half.

Today’s Global Menu

• Focal Point

• World Markets

• Frontier News

• Crypto World

FOCAL POINT

🇺🇸⚖️ Trump’s Tariff Playbook: A Rewind or a Reset?

Donald Trump is once again pressing for tariffs on Chinese goods - signaling a potential shift in global trade dynamics if re-elected.

🧩 What’s New?
Trump ally and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent suggests that tariffs will be used strategically - not just as punishment, but as a negotiation tool to drive favorable trade terms.

📉 What does this mean for businesses?

• Supply chains may face renewed instability.

• Export-driven companies in China and Asia will need contingency plans.

• US manufacturers could benefit, but inflationary risks remain.

🌍 For Indian and Southeast Asian businesses, this is also a signal. As decoupling from China intensifies, there’s a clear window to:

• Attract new global contracts

• Strengthen local manufacturing

• Position as an alternative sourcing hub

🔎 Trade policy isn’t just a political headline it’s a strategic lever. Startups, exporters, and global operators must stay agile and scenario-plan early.

WORLD MARKETS

🌡️ Cooldown: Australia’s inflation cooled in May, with headline CPI at 2.1% and core trimmed mean down to 2.4%. The softer numbers are boosting expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the RBA. Meanwhile, across Asia prices are easing broadly opening the door for dovish policy moves in export‑driven economies like India and South Korea.

🔍 Anticipation: Wall Street futures are slightly higher as investors brace for the Fed’s July policy decision and major corporate earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. With the S&P 500 riding near record levels, sentiment is cautious yet optimistic as markets await key inflation and jobs data.

FRONTIER NEWS

💥 Collapse: Evergrande is facing delisting from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after missing deadlines to restructure $23B in offshore debt. Once a property giant worth HK$400B, it now trades at a fraction of that - just HK$2.2B. The move underscores the ongoing unraveling of China’s real estate sector and its long-term economic risks.

🚀 Surge: Toyota posted record global sales and production in H1 2025 - 5.1M vehicles sold, with hybrids accounting for nearly 43%. Strong demand from China, the U.S., and Japan highlights Toyota’s adaptability amid growing EV pressure and global trade tensions.

🔄 Shift: Chinese retail investors pulled ¥3.2B from gold ETFs in July - the largest monthly outflow on record and redirected funds into local equities. With the CSI 300 index jumping 5.5%, sentiment is shifting fast. Gold is losing ground as stocks become the new safe haven amid economic uncertainty.

⚡ Shock: The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, aimed at boosting domestic production. But the move has already spiked prices and sparked concerns across industries that rely on copper from EVs to semiconductors. The inflation ripple could be real.

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CRYPTO WORLD

💹 Crypto Resilience: Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Global Uncertainty

In a surprising twist of market resilience, Bitcoin remains steady above $118,000, even as traditional markets face inflation worries and geopolitical uncertainty.

📈 According to today’s live crypto updates:

• Ethereum is holding strong near $3,900.

• Altcoins like Solana and XRP are witnessing healthy investor interest.

• Market cap has rebounded to $2.7 trillion, reinforcing crypto’s maturing role in modern portfolios.

🔍 What’s fueling this?

• Growing optimism around Spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Macro hedge positioning amid global volatility

• Increased interest from retail investors in LATAM and Asia

More importantly, this isn’t just another bounce. The narrative is shifting from speculation to utility and stability:

• Bitcoin as a store of value

• Ethereum driving smart contract adoption

• Layer 2s and DeFi gaining traction in emerging economies

💡 For fintech founders, the takeaway is clear:
We’re entering the era of Crypto 2.0 - one that’s less hype, more infrastructure. The winners will be those building for onboarding, compliance, and real-world UX.

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Thanks for reading.

Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan Global Markets team

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