Trump Threatens to “Substantially” Raise Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Purchases

Hello, Market Reader’s

U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled plans to substantially hike tariffs on Indian exports, spotlighting India's continued purchase and resale of heavily discounted Russian oil. India’s government swiftly rebuffed the move, calling it "unjustified and unreasonable" and reaffirming its sovereign choice to import Russian crude despite mounting Washington pressure. With Russian oil accounting for roughly 35 percent of India’s imports in the first half of 2025, New Delhi insists energy security not geopolitics drives its decisions. As Modi leans into his “Make in India” push, exporters nervously eye the fallout especially low-margin sectors vulnerable to job losses and competitive erosion.

Today’s Global Menu

• Focal Point

• World Markets

• Frontier News

• Crypto World

FOCAL POINT

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Heat on India: What It Really Means

🚨 “India will face substantial tariff hikes,” warns Donald Trump citing Russia oil imports.

This fresh wave of tariff talk comes amid heightened geopolitical tension and trade recalibration. While Trump’s focus is political, the implications are economic:

🔍 Key takeaways:

• India’s discounted oil imports from Russia have drawn US ire.

• Trump threatens higher tariffs on Indian goods, potentially impacting sectors like pharma, textiles, and electronics.

• Trade between India and the US crossed $200B last year putting pressure on both economies to maintain balance.

💥 This isn’t just about oil or tariffs. It’s about global supply chains realigning.

India must double down on:

• Strengthening FTAs with EU and Southeast Asia

• Enhancing domestic manufacturing (PLI schemes)

• Diversifying energy sources without hurting strategic interests

🧭Tariffs may rise, but India’s long-term story is still a bet on resilience and reinvention.

WORLD MARKETS

✨ Resilience: European markets rebounded on August 5, with the STOXX 600, FTSE, DAX, and CAC pulling back after Friday’s sell‑off thanks to bargain hunting and strong earnings from sectors like banks and industrials. Momentum picked up as investors shrugged off trade jitters and leaned into tech-driven appetite.

🌍 Ripple: Across Asia, markets posted solid gains on cue from Wall Street’s rebound, buoyed by rising bets on Fed rate cuts odds for a September cut are now around 94%. The Nikkei, Kospi, and Asia‑Pacific indexes surged as tech earnings and strong Japan PMI data lifted sentiment.

🛢️ Oversupply: Oil prices inches lower as OPEC+ confirms a 547,000‑barrel‑per‑day output rise in September. Brent holds near $68.65 and WTI around $66.17, pressured by weaker demand forecasts and lingering trade tensions including looming U.S. tariffs on India for Russian oil imports.

FRONTIER NEWS

🏠 Mortgage Rates Hit 10‑Month Low Window for Homebuyers Widening
Mortgage rates just dropped to 6.57%, the lowest in 10 months, driven by weak labor data and strong demand for Treasury bonds. This dip translates to real savings refinancing a $300K loan from 7.5% to 6.57% could trim ~$200 off monthly payments. For buyers with a $3K/month budget, that means about $20K more purchasing power than in May though sky-high home prices still create headwinds.

🇰🇷 South Korea Rolls Out Tariff Relief and $350B Investment Push
South Korea’s government is launching a task force to cushion exporters from U.S. tariffs rising to 15%, and backing that with a $350 billion investment fund to help firms pivot and expand into new markets. It’s a strategic mix of short-term relief and long-term growth bets in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and media.

📉 Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ May Spike U.S. Deficit by $718B
New analysis from the CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation shows former President Trump’s budget package dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could swell the U.S. deficit by an extra $718 billion over 10 years, inching total projected deficits to $4.1 trillion. The uptick stems partly from elevated borrowing costs on the ballooning $37 trillion debt.

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CRYPTO WORLD

📈 Crypto Comeback: Layer 2s Spark a Surprise Rally

After weeks of red charts and bearish sentiment, crypto bulls are finally seeing green. The crypto market rebounded sharply today, led by Layer-2 tokens.

🧠 What’s driving this rally?

• Ethereum (ETH) briefly broke above $3,700 signaling renewed investor confidence.

• Layer-2 ecosystems like Optimism (OP) and Arbitrum (ARB) surged 12–18%, fueled by growing adoption and DeFi migration.

• Bitcoin stabilized above $114,000, giving the market a strong psychological floor.

💡 The bigger insight?
In the next wave of crypto utility, Layer 2s are the infrastructure play. They offer:

• Lower fees

• Faster transactions

• A scalable backbone for real-world applications

For investors alike, this rebound is a reminder: While meme tokens grab headlines, infrastructure projects win the long game.

🎯 Keep your eye on utility, not just volatility.

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Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan Global Markets team

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